This has been a rather newsworthy day in the fight for marriage equality in California...but not in a good way.

First the polling data on Proposition 8, which is the right wing's ballot initiative to eliminate same sex couple's right to marry, via e-mail:

A new poll just released by KPIX, San Francisco's CBS television affiliate, reveals a shocking shift in support for Proposition 8. According to the poll, likely California voters now favor passage of Prop 8 by a five-point margin, 47 percent to 42 percent, following a recent blitz of advertising by supporters of the initiative. Meanwhile, an internal poll just released by the "No on 8" campaign confirms the KPIX poll numbers, showing Prop 8 winning 47%-43%.

Now Julia at Calitics reports No on Prop 8 is behind Yes on 8's fundraising by $6 million.

California progressives have gotten a bit complacent on this ballot measure's chances, which is why the Courage Campaign has launched its new web ad "Gender Auditors", which uses humor to attack Prop 8 from a privacy and fairness perspective.  

From Julia:

It is aimed at straight people, using a privacy, "get the government out of my pants" argument.  The undecided electorate is quirky.  Some of your friends will be swayed by talk about fundamental rights being taken away.

Do me a favor and watch it, rate it up and spread it to your friends. We have to get the word out to oppose Prop. 8. You can find out more about the campaign for equality at NoOnProp8.com. Also, please be sure to Vow to Vote No on Proposition 8.

Update [2008-10-8 4:22:28 by Todd Beeton]:Rick Jacobs, Chair of the Courage Campaign, has more at The Huffington Post.

(disclosure: I'm proud to work for the Courage Campaign)

I wrote earlier:

My one positive pre-debate thought: McCain has such a deluded sense of his own ability at these things that he gets a false sense of confidence and starts saying stupid shit -- I just have this feeling he's going to have a YouTube moment tonight.

And boy did he.

But the true moment of the debate belonged to Obama when he turned McCain's condescending "Senator Obama doesn't understand" against him:

This debate. And Tom Brokaw.

We were promised an interactive "town hall," where audience member could quiz the candidates live, and Brokaw would channel the questions submitted by citizens online. Obama and McCain, freed from podiums, might mix it up.

Instead, the patient undecideds surrounding the candidates were barely allowed a peep - let alone a follow-up or reaction shot (unless one of the Senators happened to stand close by). Given the unprecedented number of new voters this cycle, one would think our presidential debates would find a way to incorporate them significantly (over the internet, perhaps?). Nope: the dozens of "real people," as political operatives call them, were mere props on a TV set. And Brokaw chided the Senators if they attempted to do something interesting.

Debate organizers failed. Considering our national crisis and record voter registration, Americans are giving their political process more attention than ever. But they certainly weren't rewarded by tuning into tonight's debate.

Update [2008-10-8 0:13:7 by Josh Orton]: And off topic: you know you can't stand Andrew Sullivan when you find even his Obama praise insufferable. Ugh, at least I didn't have to watch him on television.

Update [2008-10-8 0:27:1 by Josh Orton]: By the way, I totally agree with Todd and Jonathan: McCain needed to move the race and he didn't. We were all bracing for McCain to go way negative, but he never did. McCain is too short on time to keep losing debates.

While the debate was a snoozer, this was a clear win for Obama for me. CNN once again is acting as though it's a draw and of course Pat Buchanan thinks McCain "won on points" but really, Barack was not only once again speaking directly to the viewers AND the group in the room, repeatedly referring to them as "You," but he also answered the questions thoroughly, with fully formed thoughts, a beginning, middle and an end. McCain was all over the map, shifting focus and I think rarely connecting with the audience (saying we're your friends, Senator, doesn't make it so.) In a word, McCain was erratic.

The MSNBC focus group picked up on this, especially independents who liked Barack's specifics on the economy and were turned off by McCain's attacks. Even the Republican hack analysts in the CNN newsroom are panning McCain's performance, saying he was "condescending" and backwards looking.

Candy Crowley on CNN made a good point as well: McCain's attempts at humor all fell flat; McCain was acting as though the room was packed with his supporters, which, of course, is precisely the case with his usual townhall meetings.

But Andrew Sullivan really nailed it:

This was, I think, a mauling: a devastating and possibly electorally fatal debate for McCain. Even on Russia, he sounded a little out of it. I've watched a lot of debates and participated in many. I love debate and was trained as a boy in the British system to be a debater. I debated dozens of times at Oxofrd. All I can say is that, simply on terms of substance, clarity, empathy, style and authority, this has not just been an Obama victory. It has been a wipe-out.It has been about as big a wipe-out as I can remember in a presidential debate. It reminds me of the 1992 Clinton-Perot-Bush debate. I don't really see how the McCain campaign survives this.

Update [2008-10-7 23:7:30 by Todd Beeton]:CNN's snap poll: Obama won 54%-30%. Also, Obama's favorables went up a net of 8%, McCain's were UNCHANGED. Wow.

Update [2008-10-7 23:13:28 by Todd Beeton]:From Jonathan in the earlier thread: More actual results... CBS polling of undecided voters gave Obama the win by a 39 percent to 27 percent margin, with another 35 percent rating the debate a tie. Another wasted opportunity for the McCain campaign.

GQR focus group of undecideds split 42 percent for Obama at the end versus 24 percent for McCain.

Update [2008-10-7 23:17:54 by Todd Beeton]:I think Barack Obama clearly beat John McCain on substance but to address style points for a second, both in this debate as well as the first one Obama is just killing McCain by simply outclassing him. The media seems more willing to call McCain out for being a dick tonight.

Update [2008-10-7 23:27:13 by Todd Beeton]:Holy crap. Look at these CBS snap poll numbers (h/t kos):

Will Obama will make the right decisions on the economy?

Before debate: 54
After debate: 68

Will McCain will make the right decisions on the economy?

Before debate: 41
After debate: 49

Devastating.

Update [2008-10-7 23:29:27 by Todd Beeton]:The best Karl Rove can say about McCain's performance:

"He began to establish theme lines that will serve him very well through the rest of this campaign."

He's starting to establish theme lines in October???

Update [2008-10-7 23:35:54 by Todd Beeton]:More from CNN:

Who was more intelligent in the debate?

Obama: 57
McCain: 25

Who expressed his points more clearly?

Obama: 60
McCain: 30

Who seemed to be the stronger leader?

Obama 54
McCain 43

Who was more likeable?

Obama 65
McCain 28

Wow.

Update [2008-10-7 23:49:9 by Todd Beeton]:And one more item from the CBS snap poll. The empathy gap is wide indeed:

Before the debate, 59 percent thought Obama understands voters’ needs and problems; that rose to 80 percent after the debate. For McCain, 33 percent felt he understands voters’ needs before the debate, and 44 percent thought so afterwards.

Update [2008-10-7 23:57:31 by Todd Beeton]:Gloria Borger on CNN: "Suddenly John McCain's experience seems beside the point." Usually I can't stand her commentary but that's a smart observation.

Update [2008-10-8 0:3:34 by Todd Beeton]:Chris Matthews: "Well, the results are in. The viewers have spoken. Obama wins the debate. That makes it three zip for the Democrats." Cut to a huge crowd of students standing in the rain yelling "Obama! Obama!" waving signs. Hmm, no one in the rain there for McCain. What a shock.

A few initial impressions. First, and most important, John McCain failed to make the most of this opportunity -- one of his last -- to fundamentally change the direction of this race. Nothing, and I mean nothing, occurred tonight that will put McCain back in the driver's seat of this campaign, let alone help him retake a lead.

Beyond that, McCain had some serious optics problems during the debate. McCain's lurking in the background was truly Cheney-esque, and that's just not a good likeness for the GOP nominee. And McCain's extreme derisiveness towards Barack Obama, unwilling to call him by name, instead only calling him "that one," seriously undercuts the notion that McCain can be a cool operator on the world stage. Note also that Obama's jokes did connect with the audience -- he got a nice chuckle towards the end of the debate when he said that Michelle could easily list all of the things he doesn't know -- while the only laugh McCain earned during all of his botched jokes over the course of the debate was from Tom Brokaw.

As for memorable exchanges, Obama speaking about his mother stands out in particular, though this retort to McCain, which Josh caught, was highly effective as well.

Again, a marginal win for Obama, or perhaps a draw -- either of which represents a loss for McCain considering that the window to change the direction of this race is closing. What did you think?

Update [2008-10-7 22:41:40 by Todd Beeton]:And McCain's most shameful moment of the debate:

Even Wolf Blitzer said it was obvious that John McCain has "disdain" for Barack Obama.

Update [2008-10-7 22:45:46 by Josh Orton]: From the Obama campaign:

“Barack Obama won a resounding victory in John McCain’s favorite debate format because he made the case for change that will rebuild the middle class. The American people asked tough questions tonight, and only Barack Obama was is in touch with their struggles and offered clear and passionate answers about creating jobs, reducing health care costs, cutting taxes for 95% of working families, and responsibly ending the war in Iraq. John McCain was all over the map on the issues, and he is so angry about the state of his campaign that he referred to Barack Obama as ‘that one’ – last time he couldn’t look at Senator Obama, this time he couldn’t say his name. The McCain campaign said, ‘if we keep talking about the economy, we’re going to lose,’ and John McCain definitely lost tonight,” said Obama-Biden campaign manager David Plouffe.

Update [2008-10-7 22:48:12 by Todd Beeton]:Rachel Maddow: "I think Barack Obama won by virtue of the fact that he conducted himself as though John McCain wasn;t there."

Update [2008-10-7 22:53:6 by Jonathan Singer]: Per Norah O'Donnell, Barack Obama won the NBC News undecided focus group about 60-40.

Update [2008-10-7 22:53:6 by Jonathan Singer]: Obama narrowly won the CNN undecided focus group as well.

Update [2008-10-7 22:59:17 by Jonathan Singer]: More actual results... CBS polling of undecided voters gave Obama the win by a 39 percent to 27 percent margin, with another 35 percent rating the debate a tie. Another wasted opportunity for the McCain campaign.

Update [2008-10-7 23:8:6 by Jonathan Singer]: GQR focus group of undecideds split 42 percent for Obama at the end versus 24 percent for McCain.

What a shocker. John McCain is freakin Guy Smiley tonight, looking right into Barack's eyes as he greets him, patting him on the arm. Right after sitting down, McCain started scribbling away. Take those notes!

First question about bailing out Main St, not just Wall St.

Update [2008-10-7 22:1:12 by Todd Beeton]:OK, during that last minute of Barack's response, the women in the focus group were literally a straight horizontal line at the highest level of the dial.

Update [2008-10-7 22:8:23 by Todd Beeton]:McCain's attack on Obama equating withdrawal with surrender totally flat lined among the focus group.

Update [2008-10-7 22:12:10 by Todd Beeton]:"If we have Osama bin Laden in our sights and the Pakistan will not act, we must." McCain is hitting Obama for "announcing" that we're going to attack Pakistan. Did he just say Obama's remarks turned Pakistan public opinion against us?

Update [2008-10-7 22:18:20 by Todd Beeton]:More McCainian exceptionalism: "I know how to get Osama bin Laden my friends. I know how to get him. I'll get him no matter what." Wow!

Update [2008-10-7 22:33:58 by Todd Beeton]:Barack very cleverly turned his answer to this final question into his closing statement. The women in the focus group were off the charts. McCain is using HIS final response to get all fear-mongery. Yay!

Update [2008-10-7 22:36:50 by Todd Beeton]:Finally, John McCain and I agree: "We need a steady hand on the tiller." That hand, however, is not yours, Senator.

Newest posts on top - earlier ones below the fold...

• Does McCain seem a little...odd tonight?
• Only two minutes left. Mercy.
• I'm not sure what the total number of viewers for this debate will be, but I bet a huge number changed the channel after a few minutes. Is anyone enjoying this format?
• McCain lied about sending troops into Lebanon
• Ambinder: McCain: "There are some things that Obama just doesn't understand" in re: foreign policy... Obama turns it around: "I don't understand how we ended up invading the country that had nothing to do with 9/11..."
• It's bizarre that during the first debate, Lehrer practically begged the candidates to engage with each other - now Brokaw seems to be ragging them for engaging. Ugh.
• BO on McCain taxing employer health benefit: "what one hand giveth, the other taketh away"
• "That one??"
• Brokaw keeps complaining about time limits. Lame.
• Great energy answer from Obama
• Is it just me, or is the mustache ratio in the town hall audience off the charts?

Here we go...

• Is it just me or is McCain getting the last word significantly more often than Obama? Is there parity here?
• That's about the toughest hit on McCain -- the "Bomb Iran" song, etc. McCain saying "not true"? It's real tough to say you didn't say it when everyone has seen the tape.
• Going back a second, Ambinder catches one of the key contrasts of this election: "McCain: Health care is a privilege. Obama: health care is a right."
• I have to think that McCain is the first ever presidential candidate to talk about his need for hair plugs...
• Now McCain is lurking in the background -- Cheney-like, in fact. I feel a major aspect of the SNL debate skit coming on...

Previous updates below the fold...